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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."