🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.